When Will The Next General Election Be?

United Kingdom

Year Of Next General Election

I’m starting to wonder if yesterday’s Florence speech changes the calculation about when the next general election might be.

Common wisdom seems to be that it will be within the next two years.

I dispute that.

The only party right now that would want an election are the Labour Party. The Tories sure as hell don’t want one. The DUP won’t want to lose influence. The SNP lost quite a lot of seats last time and they hold quite a number of marginal seats – both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives are in resurgence in bonnie Scotland.

I cannot therefore see how the rules of the Fixed Parliament Act are likely to be adhered to in dissolving the government. At least for the next couple of years.

You can if you wish take 10/3 with Betfred on 2022 being the date of the next general election. Which sounds sensible in a way.

But yesterday’s confirmation that we would remain in the EU until 2021, albeit under a transitional period, really makes me consider the possibility of a 2021 general election.

Either by a new post-Brexit Conservative leader perhaps wanting a new mandate, or perhaps from instability post-Brexit – perhaps public opinion may even shift against Brexit by 2021 if the economy keeps growing slower than the EU, as per the current situation.

I just do fancy that there may be a general election by 2021 – and all because of the end of the transitional arrangement – proper Brexit.

You can get a tasty 12-1 with William Hill or Ladbrokes.

I do like this bet.

Theresa May’s Buzzword Bingo

United Kingdom

Buzzword Bingo

I should know better than to attempt Buzzword Bingo but hey, it’s Friday tomorrow, there is an important and amazingly revelatory speech on Brexit tomorrow which I am sure that you will all be watching live, and taking great inspiration from – so we might as well have some fun too.

Ladbrokes are the only ones with this market that I have seen – thankfully as I don’t really want to get tempted into spending too much on such a silly market.

This is the list of words or phrases that you can bet on (I’ve left the really stupid ones off the bottom like ‘Rocket Man’ and ‘Have our cake and eat it’ – as much as they tickled me).

I think this has to be a positive speech. As it is being held in Florence, I think it also cannot be too combative towards the EU. I am expecting a mixture of tones from compromise to Boris-style positivity/delusion (delete as per your June 2016 vote).

The only one that really tempts me at all is “bright future”. Theresa May has used this phrase before – it is even on backdrops to her recent speeches. At 4-1 I think it is a steal – there must be at least a 25% chance that she will use the phrase on her recent backdrops.

Hell – it’s even on a video.




If you agree – head over to Ladbrokes.

At least it’ll make tomorrow exciting.

German Election Betting

Germany

German Election

It’s the German election on Sunday.

You might think it is utterly boring – after all, Angela Merkel is so far ahead in the polls that she is pretty much guaranteed to continue to be Chancellor.

The best odds you can get are 1/33 with Betfred. Not even vaguely tempting, given that she would have to form a coalition and there are no dead-cert guarantees. Risking £33 to probably win £1 profit? Not for me.

What tempts me is the relative rise of the FDP. Previously the kingmaker’s, the party is a pro-business, led by someone with almost a Macron-esque stature about him – not that one would particularly expect the Germans to go for style over substance.

But there is plenty of substance, and this election will see them get over 5% threshold required to be in government, and therefore I believe are a clear contender to be in coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU.

The favourite in terms of a coalition remains between the CDU/CSU and the SDP, as it is now, and you can get 5/4 on that outcome. But I have been reading about a fair amount of frustration in the current arrangement (similar to a Conservative/Labour coalition in the UK – ish), and would not be surprised if Merkel ditched them, preferring a more moderate and centre-based party such as the FDP. Rumours abound that the SDP are more interested in opposition, given their very poor showing in the polls so far.

The risk to my bet, is that the CDU/CSU and FDP do not get enough seats to govern together, and a third party would be required to govern, which would be the Greens.

Therefore I am having two bets. My main bet is the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition at 4/1 odds with Ladbrokes.

My back-up is a CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens coalition at 7/2 odds with Betfair.

Get on it – let’s have some election fun.

Bratwurst!

Back Boris Now!

United Kingdom

Boris is on maneuvores. He has set out his vision for a Brexit deal in the week before Theresa May makes a big set-piece speech on Brexit.

This must be utterly unacceptable to Theresa May.

Further to that, his piece in the Telegraph is utterly arse-licking towards the leave camp.

This looks clear to me that it is Boris realising that this is his last chance to become Prime Minister, before

If I were Theresa May, I would have sacked him already. But Theresa doesn’t always do things so hastily. However this is a fundamental challenge to her being Prime Minister, and there is clearly no way that she can accept this undermining of her leadership.

She has to sack Boris.

And you can get 6-1 with Ladbrokes, on him being the next cabinet member to leave. I even got a price boost to 13-2…no idea why though.

This was 8-1 this morning, and the odds will only come in further – if she is going to sack him then this could happen as soon as tomorrow. Get on it now.

If you are brave, you can get 9-1 with Paddypower on him being the next Prime Minister. I’m not that brave. But as soon as he goes (assuming he does), then the leadership challenge will be on, and it will be time to place your bets. Hammond, Leadsome and Gove will all tempt me. All power-hungry, and all with a base of support within the party.