I’ve been trying to have a think about who might be the Labour Party leader after Jeremy Corbyn.
Personally, I don’t see how Jeremy Corbyn can win the next election – the Labour Party should be well ahead in the polls against an unpopular Conservative government that is badly implementing a very divisive policy in Brexit. Yet it is consistently behind in the polls.
Should a general election come soon, I’d expect Labour under Jeremy Corbyn to lose, and as such replace their leader. Should the general election not happen until 2022 as currently scheduled, I don’t think it would be guaranteed that Jeremy Corbyn would fight it – either voluntarily stepping down or otherwise.
I’d estimate that there is somewhere around a 50% to 70% chance that he will be replaced in the next few years.
The most important thing to remember when placing a bet on Labour’s next leader, is that it is the membership who chooses, and also that it works on a alternative vote basis.
Also, he or she will need to:
1. Want to stop/reverse Brexit – a very popular policy in the Labour Party and one reason Corbyn has lost so much support.
2. Be from the left of the party – though if Labour lose or look like they are going to lose, then just a little bit less hard-left, but enough to be supportable by Momentum members.
3. If we are past Peak Corbyn, not be Corbyn’s appointed (or rumoured to be) next leader, ie Rebecca Long-Bailey.
4. Not be Chuka Umunna or anything too “Tory”.
5. Not be an old, white male.
Looking down the list of potential candidates, I can make arguments for John McDonnell, Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips all becoming the next Labour leader, however the one person that ticks all of those boxes and seems to have some level of support from Labour members is David Lammy.
If Lammy, Starmer or Cooper was leader of the opposition, Labour would be comfortably leading in the polls.
— Ed Thomas (@edthomas1984) October 20, 2018
I hope this rumour is completely bollocks like Brexit.
Stop Brexit with a People’s Vote. PS Davis Lammy, hope you will be there tomorrow unlike your bone headed Leader. jC is a disgrace. Davis Lammy for PM please. https://t.co/swt0ZovPWO
— Lynn Wiseman #FBPE (@lynwis) October 19, 2018
Lammy for next Labour leader….just sayin’…. https://t.co/NEZlwMdDo9
— LOUISA LIVERMORE (@louisalivermore) October 16, 2018
Also he can be a gobby shit and impartial to the truth at times, which in these post-truth times can help.
Would he run for Labour leader? That I am unsure about, but there is something of a groundswell of support, and are there any MPs that don’t hold aspirations to be leader of their party?
You can still get 80-1 on David Lammy being the next leader of the Labour Party at Bet 365. 66-1 can be found at Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred.
I’m sticking a few quid on at 80-1 – I do think it good value, a little outside punt when none of the favourites are really convincing to me.
Lammy for Labour leader? What do you think? Could it happen?