Lammy For Labour?

United Kingdom

Next Labour Leader

I’ve been trying to have a think about who might be the Labour Party leader after Jeremy Corbyn.

Personally, I don’t see how Jeremy Corbyn can win the next election – the Labour Party should be well ahead in the polls against an unpopular Conservative government that is badly implementing a very divisive policy in Brexit. Yet it is consistently behind in the polls.

Should a general election come soon, I’d expect Labour under Jeremy Corbyn to lose, and as such replace their leader. Should the general election not happen until 2022 as currently scheduled, I don’t think it would be guaranteed that Jeremy Corbyn would fight it – either voluntarily stepping down or otherwise.

I’d estimate that there is somewhere around a 50% to 70% chance that he will be replaced in the next few years.

The most important thing to remember when placing a bet on Labour’s next leader, is that it is the membership who chooses, and also that it works on a alternative vote basis.

Also, he or she will need to:

1. Want to stop/reverse Brexit – a very popular policy in the Labour Party and one reason Corbyn has lost so much support.
2. Be from the left of the party – though if Labour lose or look like they are going to lose, then just a little bit less hard-left, but enough to be supportable by Momentum members.
3. If we are past Peak Corbyn, not be Corbyn’s appointed (or rumoured to be) next leader, ie Rebecca Long-Bailey.
4. Not be Chuka Umunna or anything too “Tory”.
5. Not be an old, white male.

Looking down the list of potential candidates, I can make arguments for John McDonnell, Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips all becoming the next Labour leader, however the one person that ticks all of those boxes and seems to have some level of support from Labour members is David Lammy.

Also he can be a gobby shit and impartial to the truth at times, which in these post-truth times can help.

Would he run for Labour leader? That I am unsure about, but there is something of a groundswell of support, and are there any MPs that don’t hold aspirations to be leader of their party?

You can still get 80-1 on David Lammy being the next leader of the Labour Party at Bet 365. 66-1 can be found at Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred.

I’m sticking a few quid on at 80-1 – I do think it good value, a little outside punt when none of the favourites are really convincing to me.

Lammy for Labour leader? What do you think? Could it happen?

London Mayor Tips

United Kingdom

London Mayor

It’s been a while since I’ve posted, I have been busy and a bit slow on the take-up for possible bets.

Something stands out right now, and that is that the Conservatives have picked the final 3 candidates for their choice for London Mayor elections in 2020.

Bookies will give you Justine Greening as the shortest priced Conservative candidate at 12-1. Yet she isn’t in the running.

Instead, Shaun Bailey, Andrew Boff and Joy Morrisey are the 3 candidates in the running, and one will be the Conservative Party candidate.

Therefore they are all far too highly-priced and excellent value bets. Well, they would be were Joy Morrisey even in the betting – but alas bookmakers have heard of her just as little as I have.

However, Shaun Bailey has been a rumoured up-coming Conservative star for a couple of years, and at 25-1 with Betfred, seems an excellent choice. There is a buzz about him – I don’t profess to know much about him, but he has worked extensively with youth and crime (kind of an issue in London), and is very pro-business.

You can get 100-1 on Andrew Boff at Sky Bet. I doubt this will last long, Coral already have him at 16-1. A clear-spoken, passionate member of the London Assembley, he did support Brexit which doesn’t especially help in current circumstances in London, but is pragmatic and liberal, and in particular wants a liberalisation of drug laws in the UK.

Yes, I know what you are thinking, “London is a Labour city”.

True.

However, Boris Johnson won the mayorality twice, and there is a lot of antipathy towards Sadiq ‘photo opportunity’ Khan – even some Labour supporters are unimpressed. The Momentum factor may even move some Corbyn-style Labour voters to vote for someone of the far-left, perhaps an independent along the lines of George Galloway.

I’d make Khan the slight favourite – but not 1/3 favourite.

If you are going to take my tip, do it today – as the bookies haven’t caught up with the Conservative Party news from last night.

Next Prime Minster Betting

United Kingdom

Next Prime Minster

It’s a quiet time at the moment on the political betting scene, so I’m trying to find some value on more long-term bets.

I have been looking at the next Prime Minister betting. There are two main calculations for me – firstly that the Conservative Party do not, at any cost, want another election any time soon. Neither do the DUP – and probably not the SNP either. Therefore I am discounting an early election…and assuming one in 2021 or 2022.

The second calculation is that Theresa May will not survive until then. She will likely survive for a bit, at least until the Brexiteers get their agenda voted through parliament…assuming Brexit doesn’t blow off course.

There are quite a few assumptions there, but my educated guess is that Theresa May will step down of her own accord, after the Brexit negotiations are complete and parliament has ratified it.

This means that the next Prime Minister is highly likely to be a Conservative so I’d rather be “investing” in the Next Prime Minister market than the lower odds of the Next Conservative Leader market.

Whoever wins will need to bridge the leave/remain divide within the party – which is no easy task.

This means ruling out Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson (the former mainly due to the ridiculously low odds). Both popular with a good portion of the membership, but Boris is a liability and JRM’s anti-abortion views could well scupper any run.

I think Ruth Davidson is very capable Prime Minister material – though she is intending on running for Holyrood elections in 2021, and I expect Theresa May will be replaced before then.

Leadsome and Hammond are both too associated with their associated Brexit positions to be able to win a contest.

There are two names though that I feel bridge the gap.

We know Michael Gove is exceedingly ambitious – and has been a capable minister within the Conservative Party. A Brexiteer, for sure – yet does command enough respect throughout the party to make him a possible runner…and winner. The best odds at the moment are 20/1 – available with Betfred.

However, the real bargain in the list is Jeremy Hunt at 33/1. A recent Brexit convert (a la Theresa May), a very competent minister – someone who has had to deal with some difficult situations yet is still in his job – importantly with no real enemies in the Conservative Party. Does he have leadership qualities? I think so. Certainly more than May and Leadsome had in the last contest – and easily more balls than Boris.

So I’ve had a small bet on Michael Gove at 20/1 and a fairly large bet on Jeremy Hunt at 33/1. Both with Betfred.

When Will The Next General Election Be?

United Kingdom

Year Of Next General Election

I’m starting to wonder if yesterday’s Florence speech changes the calculation about when the next general election might be.

Common wisdom seems to be that it will be within the next two years.

I dispute that.

The only party right now that would want an election are the Labour Party. The Tories sure as hell don’t want one. The DUP won’t want to lose influence. The SNP lost quite a lot of seats last time and they hold quite a number of marginal seats – both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives are in resurgence in bonnie Scotland.

I cannot therefore see how the rules of the Fixed Parliament Act are likely to be adhered to in dissolving the government. At least for the next couple of years.

You can if you wish take 10/3 with Betfred on 2022 being the date of the next general election. Which sounds sensible in a way.

But yesterday’s confirmation that we would remain in the EU until 2021, albeit under a transitional period, really makes me consider the possibility of a 2021 general election.

Either by a new post-Brexit Conservative leader perhaps wanting a new mandate, or perhaps from instability post-Brexit – perhaps public opinion may even shift against Brexit by 2021 if the economy keeps growing slower than the EU, as per the current situation.

I just do fancy that there may be a general election by 2021 – and all because of the end of the transitional arrangement – proper Brexit.

You can get a tasty 12-1 with William Hill or Ladbrokes.

I do like this bet.

Theresa May’s Buzzword Bingo

United Kingdom

Buzzword Bingo

I should know better than to attempt Buzzword Bingo but hey, it’s Friday tomorrow, there is an important and amazingly revelatory speech on Brexit tomorrow which I am sure that you will all be watching live, and taking great inspiration from – so we might as well have some fun too.

Ladbrokes are the only ones with this market that I have seen – thankfully as I don’t really want to get tempted into spending too much on such a silly market.

This is the list of words or phrases that you can bet on (I’ve left the really stupid ones off the bottom like ‘Rocket Man’ and ‘Have our cake and eat it’ – as much as they tickled me).

I think this has to be a positive speech. As it is being held in Florence, I think it also cannot be too combative towards the EU. I am expecting a mixture of tones from compromise to Boris-style positivity/delusion (delete as per your June 2016 vote).

The only one that really tempts me at all is “bright future”. Theresa May has used this phrase before – it is even on backdrops to her recent speeches. At 4-1 I think it is a steal – there must be at least a 25% chance that she will use the phrase on her recent backdrops.

Hell – it’s even on a video.




If you agree – head over to Ladbrokes.

At least it’ll make tomorrow exciting.

German Election Betting

Germany

German Election

It’s the German election on Sunday.

You might think it is utterly boring – after all, Angela Merkel is so far ahead in the polls that she is pretty much guaranteed to continue to be Chancellor.

The best odds you can get are 1/33 with Betfred. Not even vaguely tempting, given that she would have to form a coalition and there are no dead-cert guarantees. Risking £33 to probably win £1 profit? Not for me.

What tempts me is the relative rise of the FDP. Previously the kingmaker’s, the party is a pro-business, led by someone with almost a Macron-esque stature about him – not that one would particularly expect the Germans to go for style over substance.

But there is plenty of substance, and this election will see them get over 5% threshold required to be in government, and therefore I believe are a clear contender to be in coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU.

The favourite in terms of a coalition remains between the CDU/CSU and the SDP, as it is now, and you can get 5/4 on that outcome. But I have been reading about a fair amount of frustration in the current arrangement (similar to a Conservative/Labour coalition in the UK – ish), and would not be surprised if Merkel ditched them, preferring a more moderate and centre-based party such as the FDP. Rumours abound that the SDP are more interested in opposition, given their very poor showing in the polls so far.

The risk to my bet, is that the CDU/CSU and FDP do not get enough seats to govern together, and a third party would be required to govern, which would be the Greens.

Therefore I am having two bets. My main bet is the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition at 4/1 odds with Ladbrokes.

My back-up is a CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens coalition at 7/2 odds with Betfair.

Get on it – let’s have some election fun.

Bratwurst!

Back Boris Now!

United Kingdom

Boris is on maneuvores. He has set out his vision for a Brexit deal in the week before Theresa May makes a big set-piece speech on Brexit.

This must be utterly unacceptable to Theresa May.

Further to that, his piece in the Telegraph is utterly arse-licking towards the leave camp.

This looks clear to me that it is Boris realising that this is his last chance to become Prime Minister, before

If I were Theresa May, I would have sacked him already. But Theresa doesn’t always do things so hastily. However this is a fundamental challenge to her being Prime Minister, and there is clearly no way that she can accept this undermining of her leadership.

She has to sack Boris.

And you can get 6-1 with Ladbrokes, on him being the next cabinet member to leave. I even got a price boost to 13-2…no idea why though.

This was 8-1 this morning, and the odds will only come in further – if she is going to sack him then this could happen as soon as tomorrow. Get on it now.

If you are brave, you can get 9-1 with Paddypower on him being the next Prime Minister. I’m not that brave. But as soon as he goes (assuming he does), then the leadership challenge will be on, and it will be time to place your bets. Hammond, Leadsome and Gove will all tempt me. All power-hungry, and all with a base of support within the party.

Who Will Be Next UKIP Leader?

United Kingdom

Next UKIP Leader

We’ve been spoilt for elections recently but it’s pretty shallow fry at the moment for those of us looking to win money on political betting.

However, UKIP, the gift that keeps on giving, have not let us down, and have yet another leadership election for us.

The favourite at the moment is Peter Whittle. I don’t quite understand why – I’ve been scouring the internet and simply do not see any excitement in the UKIP voter base for him. He is deputy leader, and maybe, just maybe the UKIP faithful will go for experience. Odds on? You are having a laugh.

I did consider backing David Kurten, though mainly because he is backed by Leave.EU – and I believe by Nigel Farage.

Farage certainly doesn’t like the candidate that I am backing (financially, I stress!). Anne-Marie Waters is a colourful character – it is fair to say that she is certainly anti-Islam – and you’ll understand that there is enough people out there with similar views, especially if you dare go onto social media after a terrorist attack.

Scour social media, and you will find more support for her than any other candidate, by some way. Whether these are actual UKIP members who could vote, is hard to tell.

But she has that all important momentum. At 5/2, she is my main bet. You can get 5/2 with Coral or 888 Sport.

There is also a fair smattering of enthusiasm for John Rees-Evans, enough at odds of 10/1 with 888 Sport to make it attractive enough as a value bet. Though for some reason I was dumb and backed him at 8/1 with Coral.

Don’t go crazy on either bet – I placed more on Anne-Marie Waters than John Rees-Evans. It will take until the end of September for the results to be announced, but if you agree that the alt-right, anti-Islam candidate is good value, then take the 5/2 as I only see her price shortening.

Political Bets I Missed

I live by a few rules. One of which is “don’t regret anything you do”.

But I can regret not doing things. Of course, everyone is wise in hindsight and can say “if only I had backed Jeremy Corbyn to be Labour leader when he was 200-1”.

For the purposes of this post, I am only discussing those bets that I strongly considered placing – and didn’t. Occasionally a lack of confidence in my instinct, normally because the odds had shortened since I first considered it.

1. Not backing a hung parliament. Shortly before the Corbyn-surge, I realised how bad May’s campaign was, and checked the odds for a hung parliament. 14-1. I then went out, got rather drunk, and didn’t check the odds for a couple of days, by which point it was closer to 7-1 and I deemed it bad value.

2. Donald Trump. There were 3 times when I nearly backed him – when he was 25-1 early in his candidacy, when he was 9-1 after a badly-received primary, and then when he was 6-1 after a pussygate, or whatever it was.

3. Brexit. I always thought remain would win, but I said if the odds got to 5-1, then I would stick some money on it – as it would be good value in a tight two-horse race. And on the last day, I saw odds of 6-1 – I was tempted but so convinced my preferred side would win.

4. Emmanuel Macron. This is one that I truly did pick up way before anyone else – way before any bookie, in fact. You could only get odds at Betfair Exchange – 22-1, if I recall correctly, and I chose to wait until other bookmakers offered odds as I didn’t have an account there. And then when he was around 12-1, I chose to wait until his odds went back out to something like 22-1. They didn’t.

5. Vince Cable. He was 3-1 recently when Jo Swinson was favourite. I couldn’t understand why she was favourite. Then she didn’t run.

6. Jeremy Corbyn. I cannot claim to have even known who he was when he was 200-1 to be next Labour leader. But he was around 25-1 when I noticed that he had the momentum. He still couldn’t win though, surely.

The moral of the story is that I must take more notice of political momentum, trust my instinct, and allow it to overcome my political ‘sense’.

Thankfully, I remain in profit this year.

French President – Final 2 Betting

France

French President Final Two

It’s been a fascinating week of politics but there is only one event in town right now and that is the French presidential election.

A true 4-horse race – if only we could say the same about politics in the UK.

Tomorrow is the first round of voting – Macron and Le Pen are slightly ahead in the polls at around 25% and 22% respectively, with Fillon and Melenchon around 19%.

I’m still kicking myself for not taking 16-1 on Macron when it first became available. And ever since then I refused to take the ever shortening odds on him becoming president. He probably still is decent value now at 3/4 with Sporting Bet to be next president.

I should be hesitant about getting burnt again in the French presidency election, but I have found a market that appeals to me, and that is for the final 2 betting.

Momentum means a lot in politics, and therefore political betting. The candidate with the momentum right now is the far-left firebrand, Jean Luc Melenchon. Polling in the low 10’s until recently, he has been hoovering up votes from the socialist candidate, Hamon, and perhaps one or two Le Pen votes too.

I can see Hamon’s remaining vote share evaporating, and either going left to Melenchon or right to Macron. Ideally, for my bet, a bit of both.

It is a risky bet. Melenchon getting to the final two ahead of Le Pen would be a surprise. Hence the odds of 20-1.

Don’t stake your life savings on it – but I think it is worth a few quid. Follow this link to go to Ladbrokes.