It’s the German election on Sunday.
You might think it is utterly boring – after all, Angela Merkel is so far ahead in the polls that she is pretty much guaranteed to continue to be Chancellor.
The best odds you can get are 1/33 with Betfred. Not even vaguely tempting, given that she would have to form a coalition and there are no dead-cert guarantees. Risking £33 to probably win £1 profit? Not for me.
What tempts me is the relative rise of the FDP. Previously the kingmaker’s, the party is a pro-business, led by someone with almost a Macron-esque stature about him – not that one would particularly expect the Germans to go for style over substance.
But there is plenty of substance, and this election will see them get over 5% threshold required to be in government, and therefore I believe are a clear contender to be in coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU.
The favourite in terms of a coalition remains between the CDU/CSU and the SDP, as it is now, and you can get 5/4 on that outcome. But I have been reading about a fair amount of frustration in the current arrangement (similar to a Conservative/Labour coalition in the UK – ish), and would not be surprised if Merkel ditched them, preferring a more moderate and centre-based party such as the FDP. Rumours abound that the SDP are more interested in opposition, given their very poor showing in the polls so far.
The risk to my bet, is that the CDU/CSU and FDP do not get enough seats to govern together, and a third party would be required to govern, which would be the Greens.
Therefore I am having two bets. My main bet is the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition at 4/1 odds with Ladbrokes.
My back-up is a CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens coalition at 7/2 odds with Betfair.
Get on it – let’s have some election fun.