I’m starting to wonder if yesterday’s Florence speech changes the calculation about when the next general election might be.
Common wisdom seems to be that it will be within the next two years.
I dispute that.
The only party right now that would want an election are the Labour Party. The Tories sure as hell don’t want one. The DUP won’t want to lose influence. The SNP lost quite a lot of seats last time and they hold quite a number of marginal seats – both Labour and the Scottish Conservatives are in resurgence in bonnie Scotland.
I cannot therefore see how the rules of the Fixed Parliament Act are likely to be adhered to in dissolving the government. At least for the next couple of years.
You can if you wish take 10/3 with Betfred on 2022 being the date of the next general election. Which sounds sensible in a way.
But yesterday’s confirmation that we would remain in the EU until 2021, albeit under a transitional period, really makes me consider the possibility of a 2021 general election.
Either by a new post-Brexit Conservative leader perhaps wanting a new mandate, or perhaps from instability post-Brexit – perhaps public opinion may even shift against Brexit by 2021 if the economy keeps growing slower than the EU, as per the current situation.
I just do fancy that there may be a general election by 2021 – and all because of the end of the transitional arrangement – proper Brexit.
I do like this bet.