It’s been a fascinating week of politics but there is only one event in town right now and that is the French presidential election.
A true 4-horse race – if only we could say the same about politics in the UK.
Tomorrow is the first round of voting – Macron and Le Pen are slightly ahead in the polls at around 25% and 22% respectively, with Fillon and Melenchon around 19%.
I’m still kicking myself for not taking 16-1 on Macron when it first became available. And ever since then I refused to take the ever shortening odds on him becoming president. He probably still is decent value now at 3/4 with Sporting Bet to be next president.
I should be hesitant about getting burnt again in the French presidency election, but I have found a market that appeals to me, and that is for the final 2 betting.
Momentum means a lot in politics, and therefore political betting. The candidate with the momentum right now is the far-left firebrand, Jean Luc Melenchon. Polling in the low 10’s until recently, he has been hoovering up votes from the socialist candidate, Hamon, and perhaps one or two Le Pen votes too.
I can see Hamon’s remaining vote share evaporating, and either going left to Melenchon or right to Macron. Ideally, for my bet, a bit of both.
It is a risky bet. Melenchon getting to the final two ahead of Le Pen would be a surprise. Hence the odds of 20-1.
Don’t stake your life savings on it – but I think it is worth a few quid. Follow this link to go to Ladbrokes.